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MSIQ’s Decode: The 90-Day Truce Is a Trojan Horse

MSIQ’s Decode: The 90-Day Truce Is a Trojan Horse

What Wall Street Won't Say About the U.S.-China Peace Deal — But You Need to Know

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MSIQ | Midstream Intelligence
May 13, 2025
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MSIQ’s Decode: The 90-Day Truce Is a Trojan Horse
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Everyone’s decoding the 90-day truce.
From macro theorists to retired generals, from ex-PLA officers to Wall Street veterans, the flood of analysis has arrived. Some call it “progress through process.” Others see Trump’s rollback as capitulation. China positions it as a win, while U.S. officials carefully walk the line between enforcement and optics.

MSIQ sees something else.
Not a pause. Not peace. But a structural reconfiguration wrapped in narrative fog.


The U.S. Intention: Calm the System, Not Redesign It

Scott Bessent, now front and center in Geneva, brings market-savvy clarity to Trump's tariff doctrine. His tone — calm, deliberate, almost clinical — masks the sharp reality: this is not a reset of strategy, but a stabilization of perception.

What we learned:

  • The U.S. cut tariffs from 145% to 30% to ease financial strain — not to signal surrender.

  • The 90-day truce enables U.S. corporates to breathe, allies to delay full alignment, and markets to stage a relief rally.

  • Bessent emphasized “strategic decoupling” — steel, medicine, chips — while tolerating surface trade flow for optics.

He used the phrase “we have a mechanism now”, referring to the Geneva format. But his delivery — staccato, oddly uncertain — reveals this is not a grand deal. It's a container to manage chaos.

Meanwhile, China moved.


The China Intention: Lock Down, Amplify, and Reshape Global Leverage

Xi Jinping committed $10 billion in credit lines to Latin America, just as He Lifeng landed back from Geneva. Simultaneously, China hosted bilateral meetings, expanded BRICS energy corridor links, and launched a rare earth export crackdown under national security directives.

What the Chinese side is doing:

  • Tightening mineral flow (Changsha meeting: gallium, antimony, tungsten, REEs)

  • Launching anti-smuggling operations with PLA oversight

  • Pushing global south financing to bypass U.S.-controlled capital systems

Xi’s message to internal audiences: China won the first round.
Colonel Zhou Bo, ex-PLA, now at Tsinghua, declared publicly:

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