While economists debate whether consumer confidence dipped 8 or 12 points, the trade system has already fractured.
This isn’t escalation.
It’s divergence.
And it won’t reconverge.
Geneva was framed as a breakthrough.
In truth, it was a narrative détente masking structural decoupling.
This brief was finalized and published before the U.S.–China joint communique on Monday, May 12 — to lock in MSIQ’s foresight advantage.
For MidstreamIQ, which has tracked this fracture for over 8 months, the signal is clear:
The world didn’t avoid conflict — it reorganized.
Geneva just confirmed how far the split has gone — and how deep the lag is between recognition and realization.
What We Track (and Why It’s Different)
MidstreamIQ doesn’t model GDP.
We don’t forecast sentiment.
We track compression:
Where custody, freight, and tariff law shift before headlines do
Where power rewires supply routes before speeches
Where capital relocates silently, months ahead of official positioning
This isn’t soft data.
This is how trade wars really move.
May 2025: Live Compression Zones (Preview)
1. Bessent's Tariff Doctrine: Fiscal Protectionism Becomes Infrastructure
The 10% tariff floor, declared by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is not a threat. It’s a regime.
Geneva confirmed this wasn’t temporary — no rollback was announced
Tariffs now act as quasi-tax policy, bypassing Congressional budgeting
Expression:
Long customs-tied infra
Domestic industrials
MSIQ Insight:
The U.S. isn’t just taxing China. It’s replacing fiscal tools with tariff architecture.
2. Custody Sovereignty: Capital Doesn’t Flow — It’s Cleared
Custody isn’t financial anymore — it’s geopolitical.
BlackRock, Anchorage Digital, and U.S.-cleared platforms are now gates of geopolitical permission.
The U.S. isn’t just reshoring goods — it’s reshoring control.