Two Arizonas – The Copper Kill Switch Hidden in Plain Sight
The U.S. doesn’t just have a copper supply problem.
It has a terrain architecture problem.
Two of the most important undeveloped copper deposits in America sit just a few hundred miles apart in Arizona.
One is frozen in a federal court.
The other quietly drills forward.
Fork Point: Resolution vs. Reality
Resolution Copper
– Owned by Rio Tinto (55%) and BHP (45%)
– Federal land; faces tribal litigation from the San Carlos Apache
– Site considered sacred ground
– Requires land transfer from the U.S. government
– Largest shareholder in Rio? A Chinese state-linked firm
– Tariff-exempt: its output (concentrate) is not covered by Trump’s recent copper tariffs
– Timeline to output: unclear, possibly 7–10 years
Ivanhoe Electric – Santa Cruz Project
– Privately held land in Arizona
– No tribal land conflict
– Permits already in place
– Joint venture supported by a strategic capital partner aligned with U.S. critical mineral goals
– Output estimated at ~100K tonnes Cu/year
– Timeline: 2–3 years, pending further development
– Technology advantage: Typhoon™ system already deployed
– Public silence from Friedland, but the terrain is moving
Compression Clarity
This isn’t just about which mine is bigger.
It’s about which mine survives the reshoring shift.
Resolution is tangled in legal fog and shareholder contradiction.
Santa Cruz is legal-ready, narrative-aligned, and backed by quiet capital.
One sits in the headlines.
The other sits on the sovereign fast track.
Timestamp Locked
Before the market calls this “copper bifurcation” or the consultants write 80 pages on land risk vs. private asset pipelines, mark this:
The U.S. doesn’t have a copper project problem.
It has two Arizonas.
Only one of them will deliver copper when it’s actually needed.
Logged: August 20, 2025 — before the fork was priced.