U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet in Madrid from September 14–17.
Official releases highlight tariffs, TikTok, and money-laundering as the agenda.
Markets may treat this as more theater — another 90-day pause, another photo op. But the structural signals lie elsewhere.
Rare Earths
China’s Ministry of Commerce continues to keep medium and heavy rare earths under a discretionary licensing regime. Approvals now take 45+ days. No quota changes have been announced in connection with Madrid, but renewals can be timed with diplomatic events — making this the lever to watch.
Critical Chemical Inputs
Since August 1, China’s customs agency has enforced new random spot-check rules on chemical exports. Sulphuric and phosphoric acids are still flowing, but with unpredictable delays. Whether Madrid shifts this posture remains to be seen. For Western manufacturers tied to clean-energy and transition supply chains, uncertainty functions as restriction.
Pharma Precursors
On September 1, China imposed new controls on several fentanyl precursors. Washington called this a “positive step.” But broader antibiotic and API exports continue mostly untouched. The option to weaponize pharmaceutical flows remains on the table during Madrid.
AI Chips
The U.S. AI chip export ban remains in effect. At the same time, tactical exemptions for Nvidia H20 and AMD MI308 appeared in August, reportedly linked to rare earth discussions. These carve-outs underscore how semiconductor and material flows are likely to be negotiated in parallel — even as headlines focus on TikTok.
The Timetable That Matters
Sept 17: TikTok sale deadline
Late October: Trump–Xi summit hoped for
Early November: tariff truce expiration
Each deadline functions as a pressure valve. Extensions buy time for critical flows to continue. The public will see “TikTok.” The private negotiation will be about minerals, chemicals, and chips that underpin defense systems and energy transition supply chains.
MSIQ Read
Madrid is not set to deliver a reset. It is staging. Flows remain the bargaining chips; apps and polls provide the cover.
Logged: September 13, 2025 — Madrid Round. Node 9 (Trade Theater).